Everything You Ever Needed to Know About the 2032 Asteroid

So, there's this asteroid. And in classic space-rock fashion, it's decided to take a questionable path through our solar system that technically might involve smashing into Earth. The asteroid, charmingly named 2024 YR4 (NASA really needs a better marketing team), has an estimated 2% chance of impact. (as of Feb. 14th 2025) Which, for those of us who like our odds, means a solid 98% chance of absolutely nothing happening. Still, astronomers are keeping an eye on it, because, you know, due diligence. *UPDATE: As of Feb 22nd 2025, the chance of impact has since gone down to under 1%.

When Do We Play Space Dodgeball?

This rock swings by every four years like an unwanted houseguest. It most recently stopped in for a visit in December 2024, and it's planning a flyby again in December 2028 - no drama expected. But the big event, if it were to happen, is December 22, 2032. That's when 2024 YR4's orbit will align suspiciously well with Earth's. The real question: will Earth actually be in the way at that exact moment, or will we have already scooted past? Turns out, a difference of mere fractions of a meter per second in orbital velocity could be the deciding factor between a cosmic light show and, well, not that.

How Are The Space Nerds Handling It?

Astronomers have been monitoring 2024 YR4 daily, but had to take a brief break because - wait for it - the full moon was just too bright. (Apparently, even space agencies struggle with lighting issues.) Moving forward, they'll be using bigger and better telescopes to refine the asteroid's trajectory until the uncertainty zone - currently covering the entire Earth-Moon system - shrinks to a more reasonable size. By mid-April, we should have a clearer picture of what's what.

April - What's the Deal?

By April, we'll be too far away to track the asteroid from Earth, so we're outsourcing the job to the James Webb Space Telescope. It'll take a peek in March (in infrared, no less - fancy) and again in May to get a better sense of the asteroid's size. Best-case scenario? We prove it's got no plans to crash our planet. Worst case? We still won't be entirely sure, and we'll have to wait until 2028 for another round of observations. Exciting stuff.

Has This Happened Before?

Short answer: Yep.
Longer answer: The last time an asteroid had similar odds of hitting Earth, it was 2004, and the rock in question was Apophis. That asteroid briefly hit a few percent chance of impact before math and science ruled it out. Also, back in 1908, an asteroid (or a glorified space rubble pile) exploded over Siberia, flattening 2,000 square kilometers of forest. No human casualties reported, but if that had happened over, say, a major city? Yeah, we'd have noticed.

Just How Big is This Thing, Anyway?

The estimated size of 2024 YR4 is anywhere from 40 to 90 meters, which, in asteroid terms, is the difference between major inconvenience and global headache. For reference, the Arizona meteor crater was made by a chunk of iron around 50 meters in diameter. So, yeah, size definitely matters when it comes to incoming space rocks.

Why Has the Impact Probability Increased and decreased?

Good news - 2024 YR4 isn't getting closer, we're just getting better at tracking it. Originally, the asteroid's potential impact probability was 1%, but as astronomers refined their measurements, they found that the uncertainty zone shrank while Earth stayed the same size (shockingly, the planet has not changed dimensions). This meant that the percentage of uncertainty occupied by Earth doubled to 2%. Then it went to 2.6%. Then down to 1.3%. Then less than 1%. 

Level 3 on the Torino Scale - Should We Be Concerned?

Apparently, this is a big deal because no asteroid has ever been officially classified as a Level 3 before. The only one that came close was Apophis, which got a Level 4 rating before it was downgraded. In other words, this isn't an everyday occurrence, but it's also not quite time to start building underground bunkers.

The Bottom Line - Should We Freak Out?

Look, there's a 99% chance this thing just flies right past us, and even if it doesn't, humanity has options. More importantly, this is a rare chance for the world to collectively get its act together and, you know, actually cooperate for once. So, if nothing else, let's use this as a feel-good moment of global unity. And if it does come crashing down? Well, at least we won't have to worry about taxes anymore.